Atlanta Falcons 2026 betting preview: Limited upgrades has new head coach Kevin Stefanski facing a steep climb

Welcome to our 32-team 2026 NFL Season Preview Series! As we count down to kickoff, we’re breaking down every franchise division-by-division. Today, we’re spotlighting the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South.

Each preview analyzes the team’s offseason moves, coaching staff, projected strengths and weaknesses, schedule, win total and best futures bet.Atlanta missed the playoffs in 2025-26 for an eighth consecutive season and fired now-former head coach Raheem Morris afterward. The Falcons finished 8-9 and went Under their regular-season win total for a third straight season.

This franchise hasn't rebounded since the end of the Matt Ryan Era.Hiring two-time NFL Coach of the Year Kevin Stefanski to replace Morris is a step in the right direction. But Atlanta made only minimal upgrades to its roster this offseason, ranking 24th in free-agent spending.

DRAKE LONDON SIGNS $141M DEAL WITH FALCONS, BECOMING THIRD HIGHEST-PAID RECEIVER IN NFL: REPORTSThe Falcons finished below .500 last season despite playing the fourth-easiest schedule in the league. This season, Atlanta is projected to play the 20th-easiest schedule.

That's just one of the reasons I expect the Falcons to struggle in 2026-27.For the record, I’m a "Stefanski Guy."Plus, the NFC South is the softest division in the NFL, and the Falcons have an above-average offensive line, ranked 13th by ESPN’s Mike Clay.

They also have a solid core of game-breakers, such as RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts.But the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, and Atlanta has a sketchy quarterback situation.The Falcons took a flyer on the brittle Tua Tagovailoa as an insurance policy for unproven third-year QB Michael Penix Jr.

, who is just as injury-prone, if not more so, and is coming off a season-ending injury.Pro Football Focus ranked Penix 35th out of 38 quarterbacks last season and Tagovailoa 32nd. Since Stefanski wasn’t in Atlanta when Penix was drafted and has no allegiance to him, I’m assuming Tua wins the start