Coinbase stock sinks 4% as CLARITY Act odds collapse to 37%

Share Link copied Coinbase shares have fallen 4% to about $169 on July 22 as the CLARITY Act’s 2026 passage odds dropped 15 percentage points from the previous day’s peak. Summary Coinbase stock fell 4% as the CLARITY Act’s passage odds dropped to 37%. COIN must reclaim $170.

89 to target resistance at $180.70 and $190.51.

SUI staking and a $150,000 SEC settlement added company-specific catalysts. Polymarket data places the bill’s chance of passing before the end of 2026 at 37%, down from 52% on July 21, after disagreements emerged over how proposed ethics restrictions should be enforced. Source: Polymarket President Donald Trump had agreed to include ethics provisions in the market structure bill, helping lift the probability on Polymarket and sending COIN stock 9% higher on July 21.

The compromise, however, failed to secure enough support after some Democratic senators objected to assigning enforcement responsibility to the U.S. Department of Justice instead of state attorneys general.

Senator Angela Alsobrooks described the White House proposal as an “unserious offer” and stated that senators would continue working on language capable of holding all parties accountable. Her comments weakened expectations that the latest concession would end the dispute holding up the legislation. 🚨NEW: @Sen_Alsobrooks tells me the White House’s idea to have the Department of Justice enforce the Clarity Act’s ethics provisions is an “unserious offer” and says she would not support the bill if that is the only enforcement option.

Senator @berniemoreno, who has been… https://t.co/XLZ2Nsm9Pc— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) July 21, 2026 Republican Senator Thom Tillis also indicated that the text was not ready for a procedural vote.

According to Tillis, lawmakers still need to make changes before senators can support advancing the bill, leaving its timetable uncertain despite the renewed negotiations. One clue to Tillis’ objections: he said the bill’s “exceptions” may need to be retooled, and he’s not referring to the WH.TILLIS; “The main thing is, I think we have to apply the same sorts of rules to everybody.

There can't be any exceptions based on office.” https://t.co/a2mKjgkyQv— Brendan Pedersen (@BrendanPedersen) July 21, 2026 You might also like: Coinbase unlocks SUI staking as token presses against $0.

78 wall Falling bill odds have interrupted COIN’s rebound Monday’s policy optimism helped Coinbase shares close above $170 for the first time since June 2, but the rally lost momentum as the disagreement in Washington returned. TradingView data shows COIN opened at $172.25 on July 22, reached $174.

96 and fell as low as $168.32 before trading near $169.11.

On the daily chart, the latest advance also pushed COIN above a descending trendline drawn from its May high. Tuesday’s decline brought the stock back below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $170.

89, making that level the first resistance buyers need to recover. Source: TradingView Momentum readings still show some support beneath the pullback. The chart’s moving average convergence divergence line has moved above its signal line, while the histogram has turned positive, a combination that TradingView’s indicator readings associate with improving bullish momentum.

COIN’s relative strength index stands at 53.68, above its moving average of 49.70 and well below overbought territory.

According to the chart, this neutral-to-positive reading gives buyers room to extend the recovery if the stock retakes $170.89 and attracts follow-through demand. Above that barrier, the Fibonacci retracement identifies $180.

70 as the next resistance, followed by $190.51 and $202.65.

A close above the $180.70 midpoint would strengthen the recovery case and place the psychological $200 area close to the 23.6% retracement.

Failure to reclaim $170.89 would leave COIN exposed to the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $156.

92. The chart places the full retracement at $139.13, although the July price structure also shows several recent lows around $150 that could offer support before the stock reaches the lower target.

Bitcoin’s recovery to around $66,000 may provide an additional catalyst because Coinbase earns part of its revenue from crypto trading. Raymond James, however, expects subdued market activity to weigh on the company’s performance and has initiated coverage with a $158 price target, roughly 6.5% below COIN’s quoted level near $169.

Oppenheimer previously lowered its Coinbase target to $209, also citing soft spot-trading volumes during the crypto downturn. Despite its cautious stock forecast, Raymond James estimated that Coinbase’s expanding product range, including prediction markets, could eventually produce more than $100 million in annualized revenue. New products and an SEC settlement support the business case Coinbase added another service on July 22 by opening SUI staking to eligible customers.

According to the exchange, users can begin with one SUI and earn estimated annual rewards rangin