Expert sets Bitcoin’s price for start of Q4, 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) could fall to $45,000 by early October 2026, according to an analysis that compares the current market cycle with previous crypto exchange failures. The forecast comes as Bitcoin struggles to hold above the $65,000 mark despite a recent recovery in spot ETF inflows and improving market sentiment. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $64,710, up about 0.

9% over the past 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, the asset has risen 0.3%.

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Finbold According to an analysis by TradingShot shared in a TradingView post on July 24, the latest major industry development, the planned shutdown of BitMEX after 11 years of operations, resembles earlier exchange collapses that occurred near major cycle lows. The analysis notes that high-profile exchange failures have repeatedly occurred during bear market phases.

Bitcoin price analysis chart. Source: TradingView For instance, the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014, BitGrail in 2018, and FTX in 2022 all coincided with periods of extreme market stress.

In each case, Bitcoin eventually established a major bottom before beginning a long-term rally. The latest comparison centers on BitMEX’s announced closure. TradingShot argued that the event may signal the current market cycle is approaching a similar capitulation phase.

The analysis shows Bitcoin trading just above its historical Realized Price Buy Zone, represented by a blue support band. Previous cycle bottoms formed within or near this area before substantial recoveries. Bitcoin’s technical structure Another indicator is Bitcoin’s rising 100-month moving average.

The 2022 bear-market bottom formed just above this level, and the current setup appears similar. Based on these signals, the analysis projects $45,000 as a potential downside target for early Q4 2026, with October emerging as a likely bottoming period. However, the bearish outlook contrasts with improving institutional demand.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded their strongest